Brian Burke hasn’t always looked like a genius in the NHL draft. But the current general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs has made two of the most bold and memorable draft-day moves in the history of the game.

In 1993, as GM of the Hartford Whalers, he swapped a handful of draft picks for the second overall choice and selected Chris Pronger. A decade ago, facing what has emerged as one of the weakest draft pools ever, Burke bid his way to the second and third picks and then drew a pair of Sedins.

Squarely in his crosshairs today is John Tavares. While it takes two (or more) parties to make a successful swap happen, there is considerable evidence that the man just might pull it off.

Why this matters to the Leafs is not just that Tavares is considered by Burke to be the top talent available in the draft pool but that such a selection would be the closest thing to a sure thing that one can get in the draft.

So this scenario is about risk management as much as talent management. The lottery to order the top picks of the NHL draft is high profile but the real lottery is in the assessment and emergence of talent from the actual draft.

What is clear to most is that the top selections offer the best chance to acquire an NHL-calibre player who will perform at a high level. What is less clear is how those odds erode as the draft progresses.

To assess that question let’s look at the 20 drafts between 1985 and 2004 to see how careers have developed. Later draft years were excluded as many players graduating from the process have yet to fully mature. Also excluded from this analysis, for comparative reasons, are goaltenders. Note that many of the players included in the study have far from complete careers.

Of the top 30 picks from each of the drafts over the study period around 10 per cent were complete duds, failing to play even one game in the NHL.

If we expand the definition of a first-round dud to playing fewer than 200 NHL career games (perhaps an unfair definition for those drafted in the later years of this study), then more than 25 per cent would qualify. Looking at this by draft position we can count nine “failed” draft picks among the top five choices (no ‘duds’ were drafted No. 1 overall), 24 from picks 6-10, 32 from picks 11-15, 40 from picks 16-20, 33 from picks 21-25 and 38 from picks 26-30.

Does this not provide solid support for Mr. Burke’s behaviour?

The top five overall picks, especially the first pick, offer clearly reduced risk profiles. After that the first round looks a great deal like a lottery (although picks 6-10 look somewhat safer).

If you get to roll the dice often enough, a luxury many GMs don’t have, then you can think about averages more than absolutes. Below is a graph of the average performance (games played and scoring points) of forwards selected among the top 30 in the draft.

Forwards drafted No. 1 overall have averaged over 800 career games and 700 career points. Those averages fall off rapidly over the first few picks and diminish slowly as we go deeper into the first round.

Such an analysis suggests that, after the top 10 selections, there is not much difference in the value of a first-round draft pick. This is more confirmation that, beyond the blue-chip prospects, even the first round of the draft should be thought of as a lottery.

Defencemen need to be assessed separately as they are not properly measured by a focus on scoring points. While overall impact can be measured using complex methods, the simplest way to look at the impact of defenders is to look at ice time. But the NHL has captured that statistic only recently in its history. The next best proxy is games played.

Below is a graph of the average games played (and points) of defencemen selected among the top 30.

Alan Ryder

Because the dataset is smaller, this is a noisier-looking graph. But the games played profile looks similar and the conclusions reached for forwards would also seem to apply to blueliners.

If the latter part of the first round is a lottery, what does that say about later rounds?

Over the study period the NHL grew from 21 to 30 teams. To study the value of a later-round pick we need to normalize for this. Let’s group the first 30 draft picks as “Tier 1”, the second 30 picks as “Tier 2” and so on. And let’s chop the data off after 240 picks (Tier due to variations in the length of the draft. The data already reviewed suggests that it might also be helpful to split Tier 1 into the top 10 picks (Tier 1a) and the subsequent 20 picks (Tier 1b).

Below is a graph of player performance by draft tier.

Alan Ryder

Intuition tells us that the value of a draft pick ought to diminish with picks that are deeper in the draft. Sure enough, Tier 1 picks outperform those in later tiers. But this analysis also suggests that there is not much difference in expected player performance between the subsequent rounds of the NHL draft.

That there is no material difference in the value of a draft pick after the first round is further strong evidence that the draft is largely a lottery. Some very talented players, such as Theo Fleury, Peter Bondra, Pavol Demitra, Tomas Kaberle, Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg have emerged from quite deep in the draft. And this assessment has ignored goaltenders. A large number of today’s No. 1 goaltenders were selected with a low pick.

How does one increase the chances of winning a lottery? Hold more tickets. Want to reduce the overall risk in draft results? Make more picks.

The selection of a blue-chip prospect substantially reduces draft execution and concentrates talent in one player – both good outcomes. But the relative value of late picks is higher than one might think. To build a successful team over time one needs to believe in these dynamics.

Ken Holland has built the Red Wings into a powerhouse by, among other things, successfully managing this lottery. No other general manager has done so much with so little.

In Toronto the story has been different. The Leafs have historically been short on draft picks. In particular, Cliff Fletcher did not apply this data as the interim GM in Toronto. As he was cleaning house he traded away more picks than he acquired.

Burke’s pursuit of John Tavares suggests that he gets it. In this case the improved certainty of outcome is as valuable as the improvement in talent.

In what has been building steam since John Ferguson Jr. was fired in February of 2008, the Maple Leafs set out to try and find a winning combination and get back to the respectable hockey club that Leaf fans became accustomed to during Pat Quinn’s tenure as Coach and Coach/GM, where he set records for wins, points, playoff rounds won and overall win percentage. They got their man today with Brian Burke after he signed a 6 year deal with the Leafs, reportedly worth in the neighborhood of 18 million dollars to the the General Manager and President of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Fan’s are ready to wait for the Leafs to build a franchise based around a youth movement that has seen similar results to last season to date, but Maple Leaf fans are enjoying the effort that the club has been putting forth. An honest, hard working club that has seen accountability brought back to the fore with new head coach, Ron Wilson. He has kept all the Maple Leafs honest on a shift-to-shift basis and they are being rewarded accordingly with ice-time earned.

The new Brian Burke era Leafs will certainly have a different look than the Patt Quinn era Leafs, the JFJ era Leafs and even the recent additions and subtractions to the club that Cliff Fletcher has had his hand in. Fletcher, historically, has had teams that are heavy with Russian players and that is his preference. It has brought him great successes over the years, with a Stanley Cup and many a playoff round won. Brian Burke, on the other hand, historically has lined his team up with tough North American players and the team will most certainly see some more additions and subtractions this season in this vein.

If we were to speculate as to which players are at risk with Brian Burke at the helm of the good ship Maple Leaf, the soft players with some trade value stand out like sore thumbs.

Watch him, as he micromanages a 72 year old hockey man on his first day (back) on the job.

Clearly, Peddie wrote this speech for Cliff Fletcher.

Video available HERE

It looks like the day has finally come for Toronto Maple Leaf fans to celebrate.

Sportsnet.ca says:

“The Leafs have finally made a managerial move, but just what that is still uncertain.

Despite reports Tuesday suggesting John Ferguson’s tenure is finished with the Maple Leafs, CEO Richard Peddie said “I have not fired John,” when contacted by Sportsnet.ca.

A formal announcement is expected later today.”

…and TSN says:

“John Ferguson Jr.’s tenure as general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs looks as though it is coming to an end.

Sources tell TSN the Maple Leafs board of directors met on Monday and decided to make a change. A formal announcement is expected today.

Despite the fact the team has been on a bit of a roll lately with a 3-1 record in its last four games, the rumour mill has continued to churn concerning Ferguson’s fate.

It’s still possible that Cliff Fletcher – set to return from his vacation in Mexico – could become the team’s interim general manager.

The Leafs contacted a number of hockey management types last week to gauge their interest in the job and asked Fletcher if he was interested in taking over for the rest of the 2007-08 campaign.

Fletcher, a Montreal native and Hockey Hall of Famer, was GM of the Leafs from 1991 to 1997.”

I think that you’ll see John Ferguson Jr. as the Head of Scouting or a similar role. He has done a very good job of scouting overseas and sourcing talent like Tlusty, Stralman and Kulemin.

JFJ had a seriously rebuilding program in place that would have dismantled the team and started with young picks. His plan was shot down by the board at MLSE and he had to continue with the current crop of older, fringe players.

Stay tuned…

Toronto was building momentum with a healthy Vesa Toskala in net. Without their No. 1 goaltender, the Maple Leafs haven’t looked like a team capable of reaching the playoffs.

The Maple Leafs could be without Toskala for a seventh straight game Wednesday night when they open a three-game California road trip against the resurgent Anaheim Ducks.

Although he started slowly in his first season with Toronto (16-18-8), Toskala had played well enough lately to become the team’s clear No. 1 goalie. He is 7-3-1 with one shutout and a 1.81 goals-against average in his last 11 starts, although he hasn’t played since Dec. 22 because of a groin injury.

Without Toskala, the Maple Leafs have struggled to a 1-4-1 record, allowing 26 goals. They are last in the Northeast Division and 13th in the Eastern Conference with 40 points.

Andrew Raycroft hasn’t been the answer in Toskala’s absence, going 0-3-1 with a 4.47 GAA in his last four starts. Scott Clemmensen, who began the season in the minors, is 1-1-0 with a 4.33 GAA in two starts this month.

Toskala practiced Sunday and could return on this trip, which includes stops at Los Angeles on Thursday and San Jose on Saturday.

Toronto is 13-11-4 with Toskala in goal, and 3-7-4 without him.

Raycroft, who hasn’t won since Nov. 9, didn’t play poorly Saturday, but was bested by counterpart Antero Niittymaki in the Maple Leafs’ 3-2 loss to visiting Philadelphia.

Captain Mats Sundin scored both goals for Toronto, which lost despite a 56-32 shot advantage.

“We played a good game, but it’s like we don’t know how to win the close games,” Sundin said. “We have to become smarter and learn what it takes to win.”

The 542nd and 543rd goals of Sundin‘s career moved him past Stan Mikita into 25th place all-time. His next goal will tie him with Maurice Richard.

Sundin continues to produce, tallying four goals and two assists in his last five games to give him 48 points. He has a shot at his first 100-point season since recording a career-high 114 in 1992-93 with Quebec.

Center Nik Antropov, however, has cooled off considerably. Antropov, – second on the team with 35 points – has no goals in his last 11 contests and is pointless in nine games.

Anaheim (22-17-6) has rebounded from a sluggish start, and appears ready to assert itself as one of the league’s elite teams again.

The Ducks are 3-0-1 in their last four games and 7-2-1 in their past 10, a surge that’s moved them to within two points of Dallas and San Jose for the Pacific Division lead.

Chris Pronger and Corey Perry scored power-play goals 1:10 apart to cap a four-goal spurt in the second period as Anaheim beat Nashville 5-2 on Monday. The Ducks had been held to two goals or fewer in 10 of their previous 12 games.

“We stuck with the same program that we’ve been sticking with the last few weeks – getting the puck in deep, cycling it and taking it to the net. Tonight we finally started getting the bounces,” Perry said.

Ryan Getzlaf added a goal and an assist, extending his point streak to a career high-tying eight games. He has four goals and six assists during the run.

The Maple Leafs have won four of their last five overall meetings with the Ducks, but lost their last visit to Anaheim on Nov. 11, 2003. Toronto’s last win there came March 11, 1998.

Brett McLean’s return to the ice is helping the Florida Panthers string together wins and gain confidence.

The Panthers look to match their season-high winning streak at four Saturday night when they host the struggling Toronto Maple Leafs.

McLean has two goals and an assist during the Panthers’ three-game run after missing 15 games with a broken hand. He scored the eventual winner with 6:54 to go in regulation as Florida beat Southeast Division-leading Carolina 5-4 on Thursday.

“It just feels good to contribute,” said McLean, who has a goal and two assists in four career games against Toronto. “It’s hard when you’re out. You feel out of touch. It’s nice to get back here and pitch in.”

McLean’s contributions have Florida (17-16-2) in position to equal its four-game winning streak from Nov. 19-28. The Panthers’ last two victories have come by one-goal margins after beating Chicago 3-1 on Sunday.

“We’re a confident group right now,” captain Olli Jokinen said. “There’s no reason to stop now.”

Jokinen, Florida’s leader with 18 goals and 36 points, has seven goals and five assists in the last 10 games. He had a goal and an assist Thursday, giving him six goals and three assists in his last six home contests.

Jokinen has been held pointless in the last two games against the Maple Leafs (14-14-7), including a 3-2 loss at Air Canada Centre on Oct. 18. However, he has two goals in the last three meetings at Sunrise, Fla.

Tomas Vokoun, who missed the last meeting with Toronto with a sprained ankle, has a 2.34 goals-against average during Florida’s win streak. He is 2-1-0 with a 2.01 GAA in three career starts against the Leafs.

Florida has won only two of the last 10 meetings with Toronto and one of the last four at home.

The Leafs have stumbled after opening a season-high seven-game road trip with a 4-0 victory at Atlanta on Dec. 14. They’ve followed that up with three consecutive losses, including a 2-1 defeat to Tampa Bay on Thursday as Tomas Vokoun allowed the deciding goal to Vincent Lecavalier with 42 seconds to play.

Toronto lost a season-high four in a row from Nov. 20-27.”We are playing well enough to do better, but at the end of the day it’s not happening for us,” Maple Leafs coach Paul Maurice said. “Our goaltending has been real good. It’s just tight when you’re not scoring.”

Toronto has been outscored 9-4 during the slide after holding a 10-1 advantage in its previous two games. The Leafs’ 105 goals are among the most in the Eastern Conference, but their 109 allowed are among the most given up in the NHL.

Toskala has started all three games of the losing streak after opening the trip with a 24-save performance against the Thrashers. He is having a difficult first season in Toronto after being acquired from San Jose in a draft-day trade, going 12-11-4 with a 2.69 GAA after posting a 26-10-1 record and a 2.35 GAA with the Sharks last season.

Mats Sundin, the Leafs’ top scorer with 16 goals and 40 points, hasn’t recorded a point during the three-game slide. Toronto’s captain had two assists in the last meeting with Florida, giving him 42 points in 46 career matchups.

The Toronto Maple Leafs (last 10 games: 6-2-2) take on the Tampa Bay Lighting (last 10 games: 4-5-1) marking the halfway point in the Maple Leafs longest road trip of the season.

A meeting against the Tampa Bay Lightning may be just what the Toronto Maple Leafs need to bounce back from one of their most disappointing losses this season.

The Maple Leafs continue their season-high seven-game road trip on Thursday looking to win their seventh straight game over the Lightning.

Toronto (14-13-7) had a 2-0 lead over Carolina on Tuesday, before allowing two goals in the final 1:25 of regulation. The Leafs lost 3-2 in overtime.

“It’s a tough loss for us because we played a solid game except for the last two minutes,” defenseman Pavel Kubina said. “With two minutes I thought it was game over.”

Toronto is 1-1-1 so far on its road trip, and it tries to rebound at Tampa Bay, where it is 18-4-1 with one tie all-time.

The Leafs beat the Lightning 6-1 at home on Dec. 10. Toronto is outscoring Tampa Bay 27-12 during the winning streak in the series.

Leafs captain Mats Sundin had a goal and an assist in the win over the Lightning last week, giving him three goals and seven assists during a seven-game point streak against them. Sundin leads the Leafs with 16 goals and 24 assists this season, but has been held without a point in each of his last two games.

Sundin, the franchise leader in goals (404) and assists (545), hasn’t gone without a point in three straight games since March 19-23, 2006.

Nik Antropov is second on Toronto with 15 goals and 20 assists, and has recorded a goal and an assist in each of his last three games against Tampa Bay.

The Leafs’ Vesa Toskala made 26 saves in last week’s win over the Lightning to improve to 2-0-0 with a 1.00 goals-against average in two career games against them. Toskala, though, has allowed seven goals in losing his last two games after giving up just six goals in his previous five

Tampa Bay (14-17-3) fell to Atlanta 6-2 on Tuesday to drop its third straight and fifth in its last six. The Lightning have allowed the third-most goals in the league (113), and have given up 18 during their three-game skid.

“We have to keep on trying. We just have to find a way to grind through this,” Tampa Bay coach John Tortorella said.

Johan Holmqvist yielded three goals on nine shots against the Thrashers before being replaced by Marc Denis.

Holmqvist is 0-3-0 with a 6.64 GAA in his last four starts and has been pulled from three of them. In his first career game against Toronto last week, he gave up four goals on 22 shots before being replaced midway through the second period by Denis, stopped five of seven shots.

Denis is just 1-5-0 with a 4.05 GAA in 10 games this season, and 1-4-0 with a 2.95 GAA in seven career games against Toronto.

Vincent Lecavalier, who leads league in scoring with 51 points, was held scoreless on Tuesday after recording three goals and three assists in his last three games. Lecavalier looks get back on track at the St. Pete Times Forum, where he has six goals and eight assists during a seven-game points streak.

The Lightning have dropped three straight games at home following an 11-3-1 start.